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建立国际政治重大事件科学预测机制的设想

The Assumption of Establishing Scientist Forecasting Mechanism for International Affair
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摘要 Beginning with the "9.11"incident in America,the paper intend to believe that the international political field is lack of the scientific forecast system for eventful affair.Firstly,from the angle of system theory,the article will lead into the scientific forecast system for the eventful affair,then analyses the history affair in case such as the disorganization of Soviet Russia,and then set forth the importance of the scientific forecast system and its way to operate successfully from three lays of international,nations and mobs. Beginning with the "9.11"incident in America,the paper intend to believe that the international political field is lack of the scientific forecast system for eventful affair. Firstly,from the angle of system theory, the article will lead into the scientific forecast system for the eventful affair,then analyses the history affair in case such as the disorganization of Soviet Russia ,and then set forth the importance of the scientific forecast system and its way to operate successfully from three lays of international, nations and mobs.
作者 胡惠民
出处 《东南亚纵横》 2006年第8期74-76,共3页 Crossroads:Southeast Asian Studies
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参考文献5

  • 1资中筠主编.《国际政治理论探索在中国》,上海人民出版社,1999年.
  • 2罗伯特·吉尔平.《国际关系政治经济学》[M].经济科学出版社,1989年版.第370页.
  • 3罗伯特·基欧汉.《霸权之后:世界政治经济中的合作与纠纷》,上海人民出版社,2001年.
  • 4Neumann,Iver and W?ver(eds.),The Future of International Relations:Masters in The Making,Routledge,1997.
  • 5Kaplan,Monton,System and Prosess in International Politics,John Wiley and Sons,Inc,1957

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