基于模糊层次分析的虚拟企业风险评价

Risk Appraisal of Virtual Enterprise with Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

在分析虚拟企业风险评价应该考虑的主要因素的基础上,建立了一套适用于虚拟企业风险评价的指标体系,提出了一种基于模糊集合理论与层次分析法相结合的虚拟企业风险评价方法。在多专家指标权重评价的基础上,运用模糊D elph i法对上层准则形成一系列的权重集合,得到三角模糊数表示的准则“重要性”评价。结合以模糊语言变量表示的备选方案偏好等级的“满意度”和下层指标的模糊权重,通过分层结合,得到虚拟企业风险的模糊评分,最后采用重心法和Chang Jing-rong的双系数法对所有方案的三角模糊数进行排序,得到虚拟企业方案综合选择的优先顺序。实例说明了虚拟企业风险评价的具体过程。

A set of index system is established for the risk appraisal in virtual enterprise on the basis of some main factors considered when analyzing appraisal of risk. A new method combining the Analytic Hierarchy with the basic theory of triangular fuzzy number is given in this paper. With the militiapersons evaluation of the upper level criteria weighs, the experts opinions are aggregated with fuzzy Delphi method, and triangular fuzzy number weights can be got. The lower level criteria weights and the appropriateness values of each alternative are presented with fuzzy linguistic variables. Then the overall evaluation of each alternative can be got with hierarchical aggregation methods. Finally, the fuzzy evaluation values are ranked with double-coefficient method and barycenter method. The course of risk appraisal in virtual enterprise is illustrated by an example.