摘要
以时机捕捉型的投资者的投资理念和操作经验为背景,本文模拟他们的证券分析和决策过程。我们视证券价格的波动为动态的模糊系统,利用模糊数的概念来定义股价波动的预测集。通过模糊数分析,我们详尽地讨论了证券价格的变化规律和显著投资时机等概念。我们获得了模糊集理论下的证券价格的期望值、投资收益率期望值、预期风险系数、风险率和损益比等数据。利用这些结果,我们得到了三个时机捕捉型的证券投资模型,为证券投资者的决策问题提供了一种新的方法。这些模型的建立依赖于投资者的知识和经验,它们的求解过程简单易行。
Using opportunity-seeking investors'investment thoughts and practical experiences as background, this paper simulates their processes of securities analysis and plan-making for portfolio investment. Regarding the fluctuation of securities price as a dynamical fuzzy system, we utilize the concept of fuzzy number to analyze the laws of fluctuation of securities price and define the concepts: fuzzy set of fluctuation of securities price, remarkable investment opportunities. We obtain some useful data under the theory of fuzzy set: expectation value of securities price, expectation of earning rate, coefficients of expected risks, risk rate and loss /profit ratio. These efforts lead to the constructions of three mathematic models of opportunity-seeking portfolio investment. These models supply some new techniques to decision-making for portfolio investment. The constructions of these models depend on investors' knowledge and experiences, while the solutions of these models are easy.
出处
《模糊系统与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期141-150,共10页
Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics
基金
广东省科技计划资助项目(2004B10101040)
关键词
模糊集
模糊数
模糊变量的期望值
证券分析
证券投资模型
线性规划
Fuzzy Set
Fuzzy Number
Expectation Value of Fuzzy Variable
Securities Analysis
Portfolio Investment Model
Linear Programming