基于模糊数分析的时机捕捉型的证券投资模型

The Models of Opportunity-seeking Portfolio Investment Based on Analyses of Fuzzy Numbers

以时机捕捉型的投资者的投资理念和操作经验为背景,本文模拟他们的证券分析和决策过程。我们视证券价格的波动为动态的模糊系统,利用模糊数的概念来定义股价波动的预测集。通过模糊数分析,我们详尽地讨论了证券价格的变化规律和显著投资时机等概念。我们获得了模糊集理论下的证券价格的期望值、投资收益率期望值、预期风险系数、风险率和损益比等数据。利用这些结果,我们得到了三个时机捕捉型的证券投资模型,为证券投资者的决策问题提供了一种新的方法。这些模型的建立依赖于投资者的知识和经验,它们的求解过程简单易行。

Using opportunity-seeking investors＇investment thoughts and practical experiences as background, this paper simulates their processes of securities analysis and plan-making for portfolio investment. Regarding the fluctuation of securities price as a dynamical fuzzy system, we utilize the concept of fuzzy number to analyze the laws of fluctuation of securities price and define the concepts： fuzzy set of fluctuation of securities price, remarkable investment opportunities. We obtain some useful data under the theory of fuzzy set： expectation value of securities price, expectation of earning rate, coefficients of expected risks, risk rate and loss ／profit ratio. These efforts lead to the constructions of three mathematic models of opportunity-seeking portfolio investment. These models supply some new techniques to decision-making for portfolio investment. The constructions of these models depend on investors＇ knowledge and experiences, while the solutions of these models are easy.