生命周期理论及在中国人口老龄化研究中的应用

Life-Cycle Model and Its Application to Research in Aging China

文章在两阶段生命周期理论的基础上,分析了随着人口年龄结构的变化,人均消费、储蓄和财产的转移和变化,并针对中国未来人口老龄化的趋势,建立了一个以中国人口年龄结构变化为输入的交叠时代(OLG)模型。作者将此模型与生产方程、政府收入及养老金给付体系共同作用,生成满足Walras均衡条件的一般均衡模型,从而从数量上说明中国人口老龄化将引起的社会产出、人均消费和政府收入的变化,并针对这种变化提出养老保险制度的改革方案。

This paper analyzes the changes of consumption, saving and asset per capita in aging process in a two-period life cycle model. According to Chinese population data, a computable OLG model is established under Walras equilibrium condition with production function, government revenues and pension payments. A basic relationship and several alternative pension reform schemes are simulated under an ageing context.