农民工对城市本地劳动力的就业替代模型及其实证分析

Migrant Workers’ Employment Substitution for Urban Labors

文章运用微观经济学理论,在阐释农民工进城的替代效应的基础上,探索构建了两类劳动力替代关系的计量模型,并利用2000年人口普查资料进行实证分析。结果表明,中国城市中被农民工替代的岗位数占城市本地劳动力的7.2%,占农民工总量的33.6%;农民工与城市本地劳动力之间高度互补、小幅替代,并且不同性别、受教育程度、职业间的替代程度存在显著差异,劳动力市场分割严重。

This paper aims to establish a new quantitative model on the basis of microeconomic theories to explain the substitution of migrant workers for urban labors. An empirical study on 2000 Census data finds that 7.2% of urban labor employment is substituted by migrant workers, which account for 33.6% of the total migrants employed in urban areas. Therefore, the relationship between these two groups of labor force is supplementary, rather than substitutive. However, the degrees of substitution differ among genders, educational levels and occupations, thus the labor market is still segregated.