近44年吉首市气温变化统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Temperature Variations for 44 Years in Jishou City

根据吉首市1960-2003年的气温资料,利用最小二乘法作线性估计,分析气温变化趋势及其差异。结果表明:44年来,除7月平均气温、平均最高气温呈下降趋势外,其余各项均呈上升趋势,以冬季平均气温上升幅度最大,冬暖夏凉趋势明显;20世纪60年代前期至70年代中后期为“冷期”,90年代初为“暖期”,冷期中有暖变化,暖期中有冷波动。气温变化条件下吉首市农业生产应采取相应的对策。

Based on the statistical analysis of air temperature data 1960 -- 2003 in Jishou City, a linear estimate on the trend and difference of temperature variations for the accumulative and three baseline years were analyzed by using the least square method. The results showed that the average air temperature in July and average maximum air temperature decreased, while the average air temperature in winter months, e.g. December, January and February, increased. The warm winter and cool summer trends were more obvious. It existed a ＂cold period＂ from the beginning of 1960＇s to mid-late of 1970＇s and a ＂warm period＂ from the beginning of 1990＇s.