GM(0,N)灰色预测模型在云南小春作物产量预报中的应用

Application of Grey Prediction Model GM(0,N) for Yield Trend Forecast of Early Spring Crops in Yunnan Province

利用1972-2004年的云南小春作物单产和与其灰关联度最优的10个气象因子时间序列,采用原始序列和残差序列进行GM(0,N)预测建模,对云南小春作物产量趋势进行预测。结果表明:通过残差修正后所建立的云南省小春作物产量预测模型适用于产量趋势预报,通过了小概率统计检验,预报结果有一定的参考价值。

Based on the data of yields of early spring crops in 1972-2004 and of ten meteorological factors which had the optimum gray relevancy with the crop yield in Yunnan Province, the Grey Prediction Model GM （0, N） was established by using raw data and residual error series, and the trend yield of early spring crops was predicted. The results showed that the verified grey prediction model GM （0, N） was suitable for prediction of the trend yields. The forecast results had certain reference value.