CCI与中国证券市场走势的实证分析

A Positive Analysis of the Relation of CCI With China's Stock Index Returns

美英等国的消费者信心指数（CCI）对股市指数收益有很重要的影响力。为探讨CCI与中国证券市场走势的相关关系，通过两类模型对1999年10月2004年8月间我国股市收益与CCI之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：CCI对深沪五个指数的走势有显著的解释与预测效果，但对我国的B股市场似乎没有显著性。

The empirical results indicate that the consumer confidence index （CCI） has great influences on the stock index returns in the U. S and Britain. Using linear regressive and Logit models, the dynamic relationship is tested between consumer confidence index and China＇s stock index returns. The results show that China CCI can powerfully predict and explain the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, which, however, has no significance to China＇s B stock market as a whole.