应用马尔科夫链预测杨树天牛发生量

FORECASTING THE DAMAGE AREA OF POPLAR LONGICORN BEETLES WITH MARKOV CHAIN

马尔可夫链是一种随机模型，它可以用于预测分析具有多种状态的随机系统。介绍了马尔可夫链的基本原理及预测方法，并利用优选法分析机制进行了分析和讨论。预测杨树天牛发生量，取得了满意的效果。

First damaged area of poplar longicorn beetles from 1983 to 1993 years was classified with 0.618 method in shelter-forest of Qingtongxia,hence forecaste the damage area of next or future years with Markov chain.The forecasted result was tallied with the actual situation.