中国柴油市场的特点及未来走势

Features and Trends of Development in the Chinese Diesel Market

我国柴油生产以中国石油、中国石化两大集团为主。2005年,我国柴油产量增加9.5%,至1.1亿吨;柴油需求在连续两年的强劲增长之后,呈现6.3%的平稳增长态势,表观消费量达到1.1亿吨。从消费结构看,交通运输业和农业占柴油总消费量的80%以上;从消费区域看,华东、中南及华北地区近年来约占全国柴油消费量的3/4,而东北、西北和西南地区仅占全国消费量的1/4。我国柴油进口量近年波动较大,总体呈下降态势;广东、浙江两省柴油进口量稳居各省市前列;柴油进口来源地较为集中,主要来自周边国家和地区。2005年,我国通过来进料加工出口的柴油占全国柴油出口量的比重比上年增加18.3个百分点,至85.9%;以保税仓库货物和保税区转储方式出口的柴油占总出口的比重同比下降17.8个百分点,至13.5%。越南稳居我国柴油出口国家和地区的榜首,贸易方式几乎全部为来进料加工。预计我国2010和2015年的柴油消费量将分别达到15400万吨和19400万吨,2005-2010年、2010-2015年柴油消费年均增长率分别为7%和4.8%。

CNPC and Sinopec are the two biggest suppliers of dieselproducts in China. China's diesel output increased by 9.5% to 110 million tons in 2005. After robust increase in two consecutive years, diesel demand falls back to a steady annual growth of 6.3% on average. In a breakdown by structure, the consumption by transportation and agriculture accounts for over 80% of the total. In a breakdown by region, the consumption in East China, Central China and South China represents 75% of total consumption, while consumption in the Northeast, Northwest and Southwest accounts for only 25%. China's diesel imports fluctuated much over recent years, in a general downhill trend. Guangdong and Zhejiang top the country as the two largest importers of diesel, and the diesel imported by China is primarily from neighboring countries and regions. China's diesel exported through processing materials supplied by clients accounted for 85.9% of the total, an increase of 18.3 percentage points over last year, while the proportion of diesel exported through bonded warehouse goods and storage at bonded areas slipped by 17.8 percentage points to 13.5%. Vietnam is the largest destination of China's exported diesel, delivered almost entirely through processing materials supplied by clients. China's diesel consumption is expected to reach 154 and 194 million tons by 2010 and 2015 respectively, reflecting an expected annual average growth rate of 7% between 2005 and 2010 and 4.8% between 2010 and 2015.