1984-2004年中国石油储量变化分析

Change Analysis of China’s Petroleum Reserves in 1984-2004

对1984-2004年我国石油储量变化及其大区构成进行了对比分析。东部老区已处在稳产阶段后期,但其剩余可采储量的下降大体为西北和海域的增加所弥补;海域内渤海剩余可采储量的增加在弥补南海的降低后才是对全国剩余可采储量增加的贡献;陆上五大盆地20年可采储量的增加占全国同期的76%。20年来全国采收率呈降低趋势。今后,东部老区与西北(加海域)之间减、增的平衡状况决定着全国石油剩余可采储量和产量的变化趋势。

The article gives comparative analysis of China’s petroleum reserves changes during 1984-2004 and their regional structure. The East Old Region had stayed at later stage of steady production, but its reduction of remaining recoverable reserves could be roughly made up by increase of the Northwest and sea area; in sea area, after making up the reduction in the South China Sea, the increase of remaining recoverable reserves in the Bohai Sea was a contribution to the increase of national remaining recoverable reserves; the increase of recoverable reserves in 5 main continental basin in 20 years accounted for 76% of national increase in the same period, national recovery factor appeared a trend of reduction in 20 years. Henceforth, the balance of reduction and increase between the East Old Region and the North West (plus sea area) will decide development trends of China’s remaining recoverable reserves and production.