40a来中国旱灾对ENSO事件的区域差异响应研究

Asynchronous Response of Droughts to ENSO in China

利用中国各地区1949—1990年间旱灾的受灾面积比和成灾面积比,分别与ENSO指数进行相关分析.结果发现:ENSO指数与各地的旱灾事件有着一定的反相关关系,表明ENSO的发生对我国大部分地区有着显著的影响,特别是对华北、东北、华南、内蒙古和新疆等地区的相关性具有很好的显著水平.通过对比各个分区对ENSO事件的响应程度,分析了其空间差异性.ENSO指数的变化与中国各地的旱灾有密切的联系,全球升温通过影响ENSO事件而影响中国的旱灾面积:全球升温影响下,ENSO指数升高,旱灾减少.

The data set of drought from Chinese Planting Information is used to analyze the correlation between the sub-area droughts of China and ENSO index during 1949--1990. It is found that there is a close relationship between the droughts of China and ENSO index, indicating that the ENSO event influences most China markedly, especially in northern China, northeastern China, southern China, Mongolia and Sinkiang. By cornparing the influence asynchrony of ENSO events on various China, a spatial ENSO influence pattern of China is presented： East China is the latest sub area that has a 5-year （not exactly） delay to ENSO and Inner Mongolia is the earliest sub area that has a 3-year （not exactly） advance of the ENSO. Influenced by global warming, ENSO index increases, resulting in a decrease of drought area in China.