新材料技术价值评估的实物期权分析

Real Options Valuation Model in High Technology

目前为止,现金流折现法(DCF)是较常用的新技术价值评估方法,但这一方法对于新技术开发和应用中的不确定性无法正确评估,所以往往不能恰当的评估一项新技术的价值。本文以新材料技术为例讨论了新技术的实物期权特性,根据新技术不确定性与金融期权不确定性的对应关系,尝试将实物期权定价作为新技术的价值评估方法,以此来解决传统DCF方法无法评估的不确定性,并进一步讨论了实物期权定价模型中波动率确定的方法,同时验证了该方法的可操作性。

Valid technology value assessment methods are necessary to assist people to make right decisions. Because of uncertainty of the implementation process of new technology, traditional value assessment methods have a lot of limitation for new technologies. After analyzing the characteristics of new technologies, we find that there is a great comparability between new technologies and real options. In this paper, a real options valuation model in new technologies, which can be applied to such fields as technology development, technology adoption, technology investment, etc, is proposed. An example about valuation for a new material technology is used to verify this model.