论真实经济周期理论的源流、内涵及影响

On the Origination,Connotation and Influence of the Real Business Cycle Theory

真实经济周期理论属于西方经济学中的经济自由流派。它突破了货币周期理论,把来自供给方面的技术冲击等意外真实冲击看作是经济波动的根源;认为经济波动不是对长期经济增长趋势的偏离,否定把宏观经济分为长期和短期的观点;坚持货币中性主张;反对政府的干预政策。它以正统的微观经济理论来说明宏观经济波动,改变了人们对经济周期的波动原因的理解,超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学,是20世纪80年代以来新自由主义经济学的重大发展。

The real business cycle theory belongs to the liberal school of the western economics, which breaks through the monetary cycle theory. The real business cycle theory regards the accidental and real impact such as the technological impact from the supply as the root of the economic fluctuation. It states that the economic fluc- tuation doesn＇t deviate from the long- term economic growth and negates the viewpoint on dividing the macroeconomy into the long- term and short - term ones. It holds money as neutral and opposes government intervention. The real business cycle theory explains the fluctuation of the macroeconomy by the orthodox microeconomic theory and therefore has changed people＇s view on the cause of fluctuation of the economic cycle. The theory transcends the monetarism and the neo - classical macroeconomics and is a big improvement of neo - liberalism economics since 1980s.