发展中国家偏好钉住汇率制度的新理论分析

An Analysis of the New Theories on the Developing Countries' Preference for Pegging Regimes

发展中国家由于在国际货币体系中处于不利地位,因此显示出“偏好”钉住汇率制度的倾向。近几年,相继出现的害怕浮动论、原罪论和美德两难论等,对于这种现象给出了新的解释。同时,近期在钉住汇率制度验证方面影响力较大的几个实证分析方法也支持了上述观点。这些理论和实证在一定程度上有助于理解人民币汇率制度改革对东亚汇率制度博弈局面的影响。

Developing Countries have to prefer pegging regimes since they are in a disadvantageous position in the international monetary system. Under this background, recently some newly-emerging views such as ＂fear of floating＂ attempt to interpret this preferential. On the other hand, the vitality of pegging arrangement is verified by a few of influential empirical frameworks. These views and empirical work are all helpful to explain the reform of China＇s exchange rate regime will put what influence on the exchange rate regime pattern through out the East-Asian.