沿海滩涂开发强度与维持平衡的临界阈值探讨

Discussion on the limit value for the exploitation intensity and dynamic equilibrium development of the littoral flat

在分析浙江省滩涂动态平衡实测资料的基础上,建立了沿海滩涂演变动态预测的数值模型,经飞云江河口丁山围涂工程等实测资料验证表明,该模型基本上反映了滩涂动态演变特性。在此基础上利用实测资料和滩涂动态预测数值模型计算出滩涂开发强度与动态平衡的临界阈值,探讨了维持滩涂动态平衡的对策与措施。指出滩涂开发利用与社会经济协调发展的关键是保持滩涂的动态平衡。

On the base of analysing the field data about the dynamic equilibrium evolution of the littoral flat in Zhejiang Province, a long-term dynamic development modeling of littoral flat has already been set up. The model has been calibrated using a large number of hydrographic field data as well as data on sediment and topographic data of Dingshan reclaim zone in Feiyunjiang Estuary, etc. , it shows that good agreement is made not only water level, flow velocity, sediment concentration but also dynamic evolution velocity of littoral flat. After the calibration and analysing the field data on dynamic equilibrium of littoral flat in Zhejiang, the limit value for the exploitation intensity and dynamic equilibrium development of the littoral flat has been calculated, and the measures and countermeasures for maintaining the dynamic development of the littoral flat has been discussed. Finally, it is pointed out that the key for the harmonious development between the exploitation of the littoral flat and the development of the economy is to keep the dynamic equilibrium of the littoral flat.