以“滑动展开模型”研制龙海市6月暴雨客观预报方法

Research on Rainstorm Objective Forecast Model in June in Longhai by Moving Expansion Model

以1990～1999年的42个探空站的3层高度资料为依据，采用文献提出的“滑动展开模型”客观预报技术，建立了以高度场展开系数为因子的龙海县6月暴雨概念化客观预报模型，其历史回报率达56％。在2000～2005年的验证中，客观预报准确率比主观经验预报高10％，且漏报次数（2次）少干主观经验漏报次数（4次）。

Basing on the 3 layers altitude data during 1990 - 1999 from 42 radiosonde stations, adopting the objective forecast model brought forward by literature[ 1 ], we develop 9 rainstorm objective forecast models in June in Longhai. The historical returns is 56%. We verify the data from 2000 to 2005, the results indicate that the rainstorm objective forecast model has 10% better forecasting accuracy than the subjective one, and has a lower rate of missing report than the subjective one.