基于层次分析法的供水风险综合评价模型

Risk comprehensive evaluation of water supply in middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River after implementation of middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion

南水北调中线工程投入运行后,丹江口水库下泄流量减少,泄流过程也会发生变化,汉江中下游干流供水能力将随之减弱.如何合理评估调水后该地区的供水风险,规划适当的水源区配套工程及其规模,则是保证“南北两利”,促进该地区社会经济可持续发展的关键.首先建立了供水风险指标体系,然后利用层次分析法确定各风险指标的相对权重并建立了供水风险综合评估模型,最后结合中线工程和汉江中下游水资源系统,综合各种风险指标值对汉江中下游干流供水系统进行了风险综合评估.结果验证了该模型具有可行性和实用性,可为南水北调中线工程规划提供决策依据.

After running the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion, the quantity and process of water from Danjiankou Reservoir will be decreased and affected, which will inevitably lead to weaken the capacity of water supply to the middle and lower Hanjiang River. It is essential to evaluate the water supply risk in this basin and arrange auxiliary project with optical scale and layout in order to guarantee sustainable development in both water head region and water supply region. Firstly, several risk indexes of water supply are proposed. Secondly, every index relative right is confirmed by application of the analytic hierarchy process; and a comprehensive evaluation model is proposed to measure and assess the water supply risk . Finally,this article integrates several risk indexes to evaluate the risk of the water supply system in the middle and lower Hanjiang River.