120°E磁赤道上空电离层电子浓度总含量的混沌特性分析及非线性预测初探

Analysis of chaotic properties and nonlinear prediction of ionospheric total electron content over 120°E magnetism equator

本文利用120°E磁赤道上空电离层TEC1996～2004年的观测数据讨论电离层TEC参量的混沌特性，并探讨利用混沌理论对电离层参量进行预报的可能性．实际计算表明，在指定经纬度的TEC时序数据中存在混沌特性，其关联维数为3．6092，李雅普诺夫指数为0．3369．采用混沌“加权一阶局域法”进行预测较为成功．对预测误差分析表明，预测点在1～144之间误差相对较小，标准差约为7．6438TECU，相关系数约为0．9172．

This paper discusses chaotic properties of ionospheric total electron content （TEC） based on the TEC data from 1996 to 2004, and analyzes possibility to predict it by using the chaos theory. Calculation shows that the TEC chaos properties over a specified area exist. The correlation dimension is 3. 6092 and the Lyapunov exponent is 0.3369. It is successful to predict TEC by using the weighted one-rank local-region forecasting model. Analysis of the forecasting error indicates that the error is lesser comparatively among 1 - 144 forecasted points, while the standard deviation is about 7.6438 TECU and the correlation coefficient is about 0.9172.