南水北调中线一期工程丹江口大坝加高方案的论证与决策

Study on heightening schemes of Danjiangkou Reservoir for first stage of Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project

丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的水源地,大坝加高是关键性控制工程。本文从工程效益、移民、投资、经济、环保等方面对丹江口水库大坝加高方案进行了综合分析,选取主要影响因素,用多目标决策分析方法对加高方案进行了论证。通过对正常蓄水位170m方案和165m(加泵站)方案进行的模糊评价隶属度计算,得出170m方案较优的结论。

The Danjiangkao Reservoir is the source providing the water of Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The dam of the reservoir must be heightened to increase the storage capacity, In this paper the several heightening schemes are comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of benefit, resettlement, investment, economic development and environmental protection, The major factors affecting the decision making are selected and the schemes are studied by means of muhi-objective decision making analysis method, The contrast comparison between the scheme adopting the 170m as the normal top water level and the scheme adopting 165m as the normal top water level with a complementary pumping system is carried out by the method of calculating the fuzzy evaluation subordination levels. The conclusion of the former better than the latter is obtained.