摘要
客流量预测在道路修建和改建中有着重要的作用。根据公交客流量总量的历史数据,以时间序列模型预测T市2011年公交客流量总量,对比该市地铁2号线可行性报告中利用四阶段法得到的2011年公交客流量总量,验证了该报告调查数据的可靠性,同时指出时间序列模型是四阶段法预测客流量的一种有益的补充。
Traffic volume forecast is of great importance in roadway building and rebuilding. Based on history data of traffic volume of bus, its number for the year 2011 in city T was forecasted by ARIMA model. Its equality in feasibility study report for subway 2 was taken into account. The number was calculated by four-stage method. The result shows the data in report is creditable. So time series is a beneficial supplement to the four-stage method in traffic volume forecast.
出处
《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》
2006年第5期370-372,共3页
Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences
基金
博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20040056041)
天津市建委基金资助项目(20041435)
关键词
时间序列
四阶段法
客流量
time series
four-stage method
traffic volume
