我国东部地区硫沉降模拟研究──模式开发和性能分析

Sulfuric deposition modeling research in the east part of China──model development and performance analysis

为满足管理和决策的需要，研究了一个可用于模拟硫化物远距离输送和沉降的二维欧拉统计箱模式。分析结果表明：湿沉降模式计算值和监测值之间具有较好的对应关系，两者的相关系数大于０．７；尽管ＳＯ２、ＳＯ２４－浓度和沉降量对一些参数的变化较为敏感，但模式的主要输出结果硫沉降对参数的变化不敏感，只要参数在适宜的范围内取值，计算结果是合理的。对气象场的年际变化影响分析表明，采用多年统计平均气象场代替单气象场切实可行。

To fulfill the demand of administration and policy-making,a two-dimensional Euleran statistical model which is suitable for modeling long-range transport and deposition of SOx was studied. The results of analysis indicate that,there is a quite well relationship between computed and measured values of wet sulfuric depositon. Although concentration and deposition of SOx are sensitive to some parameters, sulfuric deposition,the key output of the model,it almost shows no sensitivity to all parameters. As long as the parameters are set in proper ranges,the results of the model are reasonable. The analysis of the influence of meteorological annual variability on model results indicated that it is practical to use climatic data in computing statistical annual acid deposition.