我国东亚飞蝗发生的气候背景及长期预测

Climatological cause and long-term prediction of occurrence of East Asia migratory locusts in China

我国东亚飞蝗的发生发展与大气环流的变化密切相关。对1952-1999年我国东亚飞蝗的发生面积与大气环流的74项特征指标值进行了相关研究。结果表明,上一年9月到当年4月大西洋副高面积、强度、脊线位置、北界,上一年9月、10月西藏高原指数,当年1月、2月、5月亚洲区极涡面积,北半球1月极涡面积,亚洲3月纬向环流指数以及亚洲5月经向环流指数与我国蝗虫发生面积相关明显。其中大西洋副热带高压对我国东亚飞蝗发生的影响主要是通过影响秋冬季节蝗卵的孵化和越冬期间的地面温度,从而影响蝗卵基数和孵化为成虫的数量,进而影响着我国东亚飞蝗发生、发展和危害情况的变化。通过上述对蝗虫发生有明显影响的大气环流特征值进行回归分析,结果表明,上年9月和当年4月大西洋副高脊线、3月大西洋副高北界、上年9月西藏高原指数、5月亚洲区极涡面积和3月亚洲纬向环流指数与发生面积拟合较好,说明这些大气环流特征值的强弱是决定东亚飞蝗发生的关键因素。

There have been close relations between the occurrence/development of East Asia migratory locusts in China and the change of the atmospheric circulation. The correlation between the area attacked by East Asia migratory locusts in China from the year of 1952 to 1999 and seventy-four character indexes of the atmospheric circulation have been studied in this paper. The results show that indexes of the area, the intensity, the ridge line, the north demarcation line of the Atlantic subtropical high from Sep. of the last year to Apr. of the same year, the Tibet plaleau from Sep. to Dec. of the last year, the polar whorl area in January, February and May of the same year in Asia and that in Northern Hemisphere in January, latitudinal Atmospheric circulation in March and longitudinal Atmospheric circulation in May in Asia are closely related to the area attacked by East Asia migratory locusts in China. Among these factors the effects of the Atlantic subtropical high on locusts occurrence are mainly caused by subaerial temperature that is affected by the Atlantic subtropical high in autumn and winter when the locusts live through and incubate; Therefore the occurrence, the development and the suffering of the locust as well as its amount of eggs and imagos are impacted. The conclusion drawn from the regression analysis of character indexes of the atmospheric circulation mentioned above shows that the area attacked by locusts can be preferably simulated by these key factors below ： the Atlantic subtropical high＇s ridge line in Sep. of the last year and Apr. of the same year and that of the north demarcation line in Mar. of the same year, the Tibet plateau from Sep. to Oct. of the last year, the polar whorl area in May and the latitudinal atmospheric circulation in March of the same year in Asia.