GM(1,1)模型在烟台市人口预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Model in Yantai Population Prediction

分析了1949～2004年烟台市人口变动状况，应用GM（1，1）灰色模型拟合了该地区人口数量，并对未来4年的人口数量进行了预测。结果显示，1949～2004年烟台市人口整体呈上升趋势，1960年有1个人口低谷值417．95万人；分别利用1949～2034年和1979～2034年人口数据建立GM（1，1）灰色模型，两者的拟合精度均较高，但后者要优于前者；利用1979～2034年人口数据建立的灰色模型预测未来4年内烟台市人口分别为664．45万、668．01万、671．59万和675，19万人，人口有逐年缓慢上升的趋势。

The population change of Yantai city from 1949 to 2004 was analyzed and GM （ 1,1 ） model was applied, which fitted the number of the population in the city＇,then the population in future four years was predicted. Results showed that the population from 1949 to 2004 was ascending and there was a low value of 4.18 million in 1960. GM（ 1,1 ） Model was set up with the population data from 1949 to 2004 and 1979 to 2004, respectively and both of the fitted precision were high, but the latter was better. The population predicted in future four years were 6.64 million,6.68 million, 6.72 million and 6.75 million, respectively, with the latter model and the population was ascending gradually year by year.