人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate Misalignment on the Export

本文在既有文献的基础上,通过结合我国经济转型的特点,研究了人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易的影响。文中提出了更加合理的模型,引入关税(出口退税额)、政府支出、贸易条件等变量,通过Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等计量方法进行了实证检验,结果表明,1978￣2005年,人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易产生负面影响。其后,运用二元离散选择模型(Logit模型)进一步对二者关系进行了考察,得出了人民币实际汇率错位幅度与净出口呈负相关的结论,即汇率错位幅度越小,越有利于出口,从而出现贸易顺差。

Based on the original literature and taking into account of the current economic transition of China, the paper focuses on the effects of RMB real exchange rate misalignment on China＇ s exports by proposing a more reasonable model incorporating such variables as tax variable （export drawback）, government consumption expenditure variable, terms of trade variable. Also an empirical test is conducted through Johansen co-integration test, error correction model, granger causality, impulse-response and variance decomposition method. It is found that RMB real exchange rate misalignment has negative impact on China＇ s export from 1978-2005. Another finding is that through the analysis of logit modal, RMB real exchange rate misalignment and net export are of negative correlation i.e., less misalignment, more export and as a result more trade surplus.