中国-东盟贸易自由化博弈分析

Analysis of China-ASEAN Trade Liberalization by Game Theory

在经济全球化和区域经济一体化的背景下,中国-东盟自由贸易区的全面启动将对世界经济格局产生深远的影响.但在实施自由化贸易的过程中,当事双方的共同利益和本位利益既有协同也有冲突.因此,尝试从博弈论的角度来分析中国-东盟贸易自由化的利益机制和推动贸易自由化的条件.通过对双方的利益博弈分析,指出贸易双方应该逐步看淡本位利益,为推动贸易自由化进程而应更多地考虑共同利益和长远利益;其次,双方在制定贸易政策和进行谈判时,虽然不能忽略本位利益,但只有通过满足他方的利益才能使本位利益得到实现;因此,满足贸易双方“利己”和“利他”的唯一均衡解就是同步实施关税减让.在整个博弈过程中,中国作为一个负责任的大国,可以通过首先放弃部分局部利益来换取东盟各国的信任,从而确立中国在贸易战略中的市场领导者地位.这正是确保区域贸易自由化实现的基本要件.

The star-up of China-ASEAN free trade area will have great impact on world economic structure in the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration. However during the course of free trade, the both sides have hoth synergy and collision on their common interests and individual basic interests. So, this paper tries to analyze the interest mechanism of China-ASEAN trade liheralization and the conditions of driving trade liberalization. Through analysis of bilateral interests by game theory, this study point out that the both sides shouldn＇t over-walue their hasic interests and in order to promote the course of free trade zone. the bilateral should consider more about their common and long-term interests. Besides. the bilateral can＇t overlook their basic interests when design trade policies and make negotiations, but these can be realized only through meeting the counterpart＇s interests, So the unique way to meet the hilateral interests is to adopt synchronal tariff-reduction by both sides. During the whole course of game, China, as the responsible large country, can give up partial interests firstly to exchange the trust come frorn ASEAN, and then establish the leader position in tiffs market game, which is the precondition to realize trade liberalization individual between two parties.