全球区域同化预报系统在台风移动与登陆预报中应用

Application of GRAPES model in typhoon tracks and landing prediction

全球区域同化预报系统为中国新一代数值天气预报模式.使用全球区域同化预报系统模式产品和常规观测资料,模拟预报了2005年4个登陆强台风,得到全球区域同化预报系统模式对于台风移动路径、登陆时间、地点、强度等方面的预报能力的初步评价,为应用全球区域同化预报系统模式进行台风天气预报和分析以及对于模式的进一步改进提供一些有意义的依据.结果显示,全球区域同化预报系统模式预报的台风路径24 h平均距离误差小于150 km,48 h平均距离误差小于200 km.模式预报台风强度偏弱,原因在于模式的初始场对台风强度的描述远低于实况,下一步需要改造模式初始场.

Global regional assimilation and prediction system is a new numerical weather forecast model in China. Using GRAPES model and basal observation data, numeric simulation and analysis of GRAPES model for four landing typhoons in 2005 is implemented and the basal forecast evaluation of GRAPES model in typhoon tracks and landing prediction is given. As a result, GRAPES model can offer significant references for typhoon weather analysis and forecast and the more advance of model. The result shows that the average error is less than 150 km per 24 h and 240 km per 48 h. The intensity forecast by GRAPES model is weaker because the typhoon original intensity field in model is far weaker than that in actually happening, so it is necessary to rebuild the original field in model.