登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化

Interdecadal change of the landing tropical cyclone tracks over China

利用1951～2002年热带气旋年鉴资料，将52年分成ID1（1951～1979年）和ID2（1980-2002年）两个年代际时段，研究西北太平洋7-9月登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化．结果表明，登陆中国热带气旋存在明显的月际、年际和年代际变化，从ID1到1132，热带气旋路径频数在东海和菲律宾海明显下降，而在南海略微有所上升．东海和南海热带气旋路径频数的时间序列进一步揭示了20世纪70年代末期热带气旋路径频数位置的变化．

With the tropical cyclone（TC） yearbooks data from 1951 to 2002, the authors investigated interdecadal variations of typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific from June to September. The analysis period was divided into two interdecadal periods： ID1 （1951-1979） and ID2 （1980--2002）. The results showed that the tropical cyclones landing China had remarkable intermonthly, interannual and interdecadal variativity. From ID1 to ID2 ,typhoon passage frequency decreased in the East China Sea and Philippine Sea, but increased slightly in the South China Sea . The time series of typhoon passage frequency over the East China Sea, South China Sea and Philippine Sea further reveal a regime shift in the late 1970s.