北京市未来人口发展趋势预测——利用多状态模型对未来人口、人力资本和城市化水平的预测分析被引量：30

The Future Population of Beijing——A Projection on the Population,Human Capital and Urbanization using PDE Model

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摘要利用PDE模型,以2000年人口普查数据为预测的基础数据和相关参数设计的主要依据,对北京市2000-2030年人口变化的规模、年龄结构进行了预测;结合人口迁移和教育发展,预测了北京市人力资本的变化。比较了在不同生育率和迁移方案下,北京市人口增长、老龄化和人力资本的变化,根据预测结果对北京市人口和城市规划提出了政策建议。 Employing the PDE （ Population-Development-Environment ） Model, this paper projected the population change of Beijing during 2000 -2030 taking 2000 population census as base year data. The population project of Beijing in this paper not only focused on the number of population in urban and rural Beijing and its age structure, but also tried to project the human capital （education） in future. The paper compared the population and human capital change under different fertility and migration scenarios, and also provided suggestions to population and urban planning based on the population projection of Beijing.

作者陈功曹桂英刘玉博庞丽华张蕾任强王海涛郑晓瑛

机构地区北京大学人口研究所国际应用系统分析研究所

出处《市场与人口分析》 CSSCI 2006年第4期29-41,共13页 Market & Demographic Analysis

基金国家自然科学基金和国际应用系统分析研究所(ⅡASA)中国人口和人力资本多区域与概率预测合作项目(70377011) 国家重点基础研究发展规划973项目(2001CB5103) 国家人口和计划生育委员会出生缺陷干预工程(计生科[2000]13号) 长江学者奖励计划北京大学985和211项目(20020903)的大力支持.

关键词人口预测多状态模型北京 population projection, PDE model, Beijing

分类号 C921 [社会学—人口学]

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参考文献14

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