制约俄罗斯能源战略与外交实施的因素探析

Probe into Factors Restricting Russian Energy Strategies and Diplomatic Performance

“能源超级大国”俄罗斯于2003年5月出台了《俄罗斯2020年前能源战略》,使油气能源成为实现国家外交战略目标的重要手段。俄罗斯政府在推行能源外交过程中,受到以下四个方面因素的影响与制约:第一,油气工业本身存在一些结构性问题;第二,在管理体制方面存在诸多问题;第三,国际市场能源价格变动对能源出口战略造成直接影响;第四,地缘政治也是掣肘能源外交的重要因素。因此,如果俄罗斯政府在能源战略上出现重大判断和运作失误,也可能给外交带来负面影响。

The superpower of energy, Russia, issued Russian Energy Strategies before the Year 2020 in May 2003, which has made energy of oil and gas an important means to reach the strategic goals of its State diplomacy. Implementing diplomacy of energy, Russia has been affected and restricted by the four factors： constructive problems of Russian industries of oil and gas. quite a number of deficiencies in governmental managerial systems, direct influence on Russian strategies of energy export, and restrictions against diplomacy of energy by regional politics. Hence, any wrong judgment on energy strategies may produce negative effects on Russian diplomacy.