民主化比较研究:一些广泛的和局部性的结论

Comparative Democratization: Big and Bounded Generalizations

民主化的比较研究已经产生了两类普遍结论:一类几乎一般的适用,一类则仅适用于一定地区内的某些国家。第一类包括良好的经济发展在保证民主持续稳定发展中的作用、政治精英在建立和毁掉民主制度中的重要作用、法治和国家能力对新生民主的质量和巩固发展的重要性等等。第二类是前东欧社会主义国家与拉丁美洲和南欧的民主化的对比:例如民主化与经济转型的关系、从过去的政治经济体制快速或缓慢转型对于巩固新生民主制度的利与弊等。这两类结论对比较政治学者有两个方法论上的启示:一是怎样理解理论的普遍性,二是如何衡量事件的长期性的和直接性的原因哪个更重要。

Comparative studies of democratization have produced two types of generalizations： those having nearly universal application and those applying to a range of countries within a region. In the first category are such arguments as the role of high levels of economic development in guaranteeing democratic sustainability, the centrality of political elites in establishing and terminating democracy, and deficits in nile of law and state capacity as the primary challenge to the quality and survival of new democracies. In the second categorj are contrasts between recent democratization in post-Sesialist Europe versus Latin America and southern Europe-for example, in the relationship between democratization and economic reform and in the costs and benefits for democratic consolidation of breaking quickly versus slowly with the authoritarian past. The two sets of conclusions have important methodelogicai implications for how comparativists understand goneralizability and the emphasis placed on historical versus proximate causation.