中国财政政策宏观经济效应的实证检验:1978-2004

Empirical Study on the Fiscal Policy Macroeconomic Effectiveness in China:1978-2004

本文从财政政策是否有效、财政政策是否存在时滞、财政政策的挤出效应如何等三个层面,基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验方法,分析了我国财政政策相关变量之间的关系。实证结果显示,财政政策各层变量之间存在层层推进的因果关系,但部分变量的关联与理论的吻合性较差。总体来看,中国的财政政策从其宏观效应来分析是有效的,但存在挤出效应,而且时滞较为明显。

The fiscal policy macroeconomic effectiveness is the degree that total demand and supply are affected by government expenditure and tax. It includes the validity, time lag and the crowding--out effect. In order to study the fiscal policy effectiveness in China, the relationship between the tool variable, transfer variable and objective variable have been analyzed by co--integration and Granger causality test, based on the annual data（1978--2004）. The empirical indicates that the Granger causality is existence between the different layers variable. However, some relationship in theoryisfft reflected based on the data. Generally speaking, the fiscal policy is effective . But the extrusion effect and the time lag are evidence