我国宏观经济政策与经济波动的实证研究

Positive Research between Macroeconomics Policy and Business Fluctuation of China

本文根据Granger因果检验和联立方程模型,利用我国1985-2003年的年度统计数据,对我国宏观经济政策与经济波动之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,消费政策、投资政策和外贸政策对经济波动影响的显著性水平要高于财政政策和货币政策对经济波动影响的显著性水平,影响我国经济波动的关键政策并不是财政政策和货币政策,而是消费政策、投资政策和外贸政策。

According to Granger test and simultaneous equations models, this paper use the annual national statistic data from 1953 to 2003 of China, research the interactions between macroeconomics policies and business fluctuation. Research result indicate that the significance level of that comsuption policy, investment policy and foreign trade policy affect business fluctuation is higher than of that fiscal policy and monetary policy affect business fluctuation, the key economic policy of affecting business fluctuation of China is not fiscal policy and monetary policy, and is comsuption policy, investment policy and foreign trade policy.