特殊节假日的短期负荷预测新方法

A new method of short-term load forecasting for special holidays

针对电力系统短期负荷预测中特殊节假日负荷的特殊性,利用基于模糊逻辑推理的预测新方法,预测了特殊节假日的最高负荷、最低负荷以及24点负荷值。该方法合理运用了模糊逻辑对不确定问题的推理能力,克服了特殊节假日由于负荷特性的不同以及历史数据缺乏所导致的预测困难,仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。

In view of the particularity of load fore.casting in the special holidays.this paper proposes a new method baaed on fuzzy logic reasoning for its capacity of fuzzy logic to uncertain load, The peak load,off-peak load and 24-point loads are all determined through using the proposed method. This method uses the inferential capability, of fuzzy logic to uncertain problems, which ideally resolves several problems such as the special load eharacter of special holidays and lack of former data. The simulation results show the validity of the proposed method.