中国粮食生产能力发展状况分析

China Grain Productivity Analysis of China

研究目的:通过分析全国及各省40年来的粮食生产能力发展变化状况,提出稳定和提高粮食生产能力的对策措施,为保障国家粮食安全提供有效支撑。研究方法:根据粮食生产的S型曲线,分4种类型分别对各省粮食生产能力发展状况进行分析。研究结果:经济发展水平较高的省区,粮食生产能力开始出现下降趋势,其中有部分省属于粮食主产区,应引起高度重视;而经济发展水平一般或较低的省区,粮食生产能力仍在不断增加。研究结论:粮食播种面积的变化是影响粮食生产能力变化的最直接的因素,但耕地面积减少导致粮食的减少是刚性的;要稳定和提高粮食生产能力可通过稳定粮食播种面积、加大土地开发整理力度进一步提升粮食单产水平、加大粮食生产的政策保障等措施来实现。

The purpose of this study is to put forward countermeasures to stabilize and improve grain productivity. Based on the ＂S＂curve of grain production, provincial grain productivity is examined in four types. The study result shows that the grain productivity of developed provinces intend to be downward. On the contrary, the grain productivity in some developing provinces is in continuous increasing. The most direct factor influencing grain productivity is grain planting area. However, it is rigid that reduction of arable land area leads to reduction of food supply. To stabilize and improve grain productivity, three options are recommended： （1） stabilizing grain planting area; （2）strengthening land exploitation and consolidation to promote grain yield, and （3）expanding policy support for grain production.