基于初值修正的非等距灰色预测模型

Unequal Interval Grey Forecast Models Based on the Modificatory Initial-Value

对非等间距灰色模型的预测精度进行了分析,表明初值的选取对模型的精度有重要的影响,进而提出了两种修正初值的方法来提高模型预测精度,得到了一类改进的灰色预测模型。最后给出了一个应用实例,结果表明,该改进模型具有较高的预测精度。

The forecast precision of unequal interval grey model is analyzed. It shows that the selection of initial value has an important effect on the model＇s precision. Then the improvement of unequal interval grey forecast models are put forward based upon the methods of modificatory initial value for advancing the degres of forecasting accuracy. Finally,an application example is presented, the application results show that the improved model possesses higher degree of forecasting accuracy.