行为决策理论及决策行为实证研究方法探讨

A Probe into Behavior Decision-making Theory and Empirical Research Method of Decision-making Behavior

作者对行为决策理论发展的历程及各阶段中决策行为的实证研究方法进行了梳理,发现决策行为的实证研究方法在很大程度上决定了行为决策理论发展的进程。在对决策行为一般实证研究方法及其特点进行分析之后,作者认为观察法较适用于决策行为的初步探索性研究;调查法则较适用于一般决策行为的总体状况和特征的研究;如果理论假说源于决策者某些特定的、深层次的主观动机,假设的证实或者证伪又需要大量的检验,实验法的优势比较明显。为了取得对本研究的实证效果,这里对如何将实验法应用于中国投资者决策行为研究做了一次实证性尝试,以供学术争鸣。

This paper sums up the development process of decision - making theory and the empirical research methods of decision - making behavior in different phases, and finds that the empirical research method of decision - making behavior influences the development of behavior decision - making theory to a large degree. After an analysis of the general empirical research method of decision - making behavior and their specific characteristics, the author holds that the observation method is more suitable for the initial exploration of decision - making behavior, and the investigation method is more suitable for researching the general status and characteristics of ordinary decision - making behavior. If the theoretical hypotheses derive from some specific and profound subjective motive of decision makers, and the confirmation or refutation of the hypotheses demand substantive test, then the experimentation method has obvious advantages. In order to achieve an empirical effect of this research, this paper makes an empirical try about applying the experimentation method to research the decision - making behavior of investors in Chinese stock market.