出口商品结构优化与经济增长相互作用的实证研究——基于我国初级产品与工业制成品出口的协整分析

Empirical Study on the Mutual Effect of Structure Optimizing of Export Goods and Economic Growth

本文基于我国1980-2004年初级产品出口、工业制成品出口和国内生产总值的统计数据,对出口商品结构优化与经济增长的相互作用进行了协整分析。实证结果表明:出口商品结构优化对经济增长有长期稳定的促进作用,而短期表现不明显,并且两者之间不存在双向因果关系。根据以上结论,提出了优化出口商品结构以促进我国经济持续稳定增长的政策建议。

In recent years, the rapid improvement of structure of export goods of our country plays a definite role in promoting the economic growth by the constant increasing of export and the stronger ability of creating foreign exchange of industrial manufactured goods. Based on the annual data from 1980 to 2004 about the export of primary and industrial manufactured goods and GDP in China, this paper makes a co-integration analysis of the mutual effect of structure optimizing of export goods and economic growth. The empirical result shows that： structure optimizing of export goods has a long-term promotion to economic growth, but it is not obvious from short-term perspective and they have not mutual causality. According to these results, this paper puts forward some advices on promoting the sustainable development of economic growth by optimizing the structure of export goods.