中国能源消耗与国内生产总值关系的实证分析

Empirical analysis on the relationship between the energy consumption and GDP of China

能源是经济发展基础,研究能源消耗与国内生产总值之间的均衡关系具有重要的理论意义和实际意义;从定量方面采用协整与误差修正模型对1978￣2004年间国内生产总值和能源消耗总量进行实证分析。研究结果表明我国能源消耗与经济增长之间存在协整关系,针对这一协整关系,结合我国能源方面的实际情况,分别从经济手段、法律和行政手段、技术手段以及宣传教育手段4个方面提出政策建议。

The energy is the foundation of economy development, so the research on the equilibrium relationship of energy consumption and GDP is very significant. This paper uses cointegration theory and error correction model to analyze the cointegrating relationship between energy consumption and GDP of China from 1978 to 2004. It is found that energy consumption and GDP was cointegratted. Also considering Chinese actual circumstance of the energy, and then proposes policy suggestion, which includes economic means, law and administration means, technique means and educational means, hoping that the implement of those measures can provide dependable energy insurance for China＇s long-term development.