人民币汇率升值与中美贸易失衡问题探讨

On Renminbi’S Appreciation and Trade Imbalance Between China and U.S.

中美贸易失衡问题经常是中美双边贸易争端的核心,也被认为是中国对美贸易不公平的实证依据,人民币升值的舆论压力正是由此而起。本文通过对人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额建立VAR模型,重点考察了人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额之间的Granger因果关系,认为人民币汇率变动与中美贸易差额之间不存在因果关系。中美贸易失衡问题的根本原因在于美国的低储蓄率和相关贸易产品劳动生产率增长率相对低下造成的。单纯的人民币升值不会解决中美贸易失衡问题。

Trade imbalance is the core of the controversy between China and U.S. It is thought to be the proof of China treating U.S. in trade unfairly. The paper proves that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rates is not the cause of the trade imbalance between China and U.S. by a VAR model. The low deposit rates and labor productivity in U.S. is the essential cause of the trade imbalance between China and U.S. and the exchange rate system in China which leads to domestic economy imbalance is also irresponsible for it. The appreciation of RENMINBI can＇ t solve the imbalance between China and U.S.