拉美和东亚国家(地区)在东亚金融危机后的经济恢复比较

A Comparison of Economic Recovery of Latin America and East Asian Countries After the East Asian Financial Crisis

1997～1998年的东亚金融危机给世界经济带来了巨大冲击,尤其是对东亚和拉美新兴市场国家和地区的经济造成了很大的破坏作用。本文试图对这两个区域危机后的经济恢复情况进行比较。首先,通过主成分分析法对16个国家和地区危机后6年的宏观经济指标进行了综合评估,实证结果表明,危机后的恢复程度存在着较大的差异和地域特征。接着本文对可能导致各国在危机后经济恢复差异的原因进行了实证研究,发现经济发展模式、储蓄率和外债负担等对原因的解释力较强。最后,本文对实证结果的政策含义进行了阐述。

The East Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 brought shocks to the world economy, especially to the newly emerging economies in the East Asia and Latin America. A comparison on the economy recovery of the two areas after the crisis was made in the paper. Firstly, main-dement analysis is adopted to evaluate the macroeconomic indices of 16 countries and regions during the six post-crisis years in this paper and found that there are significant differences in the recovery among these countries and regions. Secondly, empirical tests are conducted on the fundamental factors that possibly play a role in forming the difference. It was found that factors such as economic development pattern, savings rate and forei, gn debt are significant in explaining the difference. In the end of the paper, the policy insights of the empirical results are analyzed.