资源型旅游地增长极限的理论模型

The Limit of Growth of Resource Dependent Tourism Destination

在经济发展中,国内诸多地区都将旅游业发展作为支柱产业,但对其长期有效性却缺少理论和实证的探讨。一些落后地区虽然靠旅游发展获得第一桶金,走的是资源经济之路,但带动效益有限。本研究运用最新的发展理论,在对典型资源型旅游地作分析的基础上,建立了资源型旅游目的地发展的一般结构模型,并指出导致资源型旅游地发展的内部限制性因素。本研究希望更多的研究人员关注这一问题,从理论和实证上丰富和验证本文提出的理论假设。

Quite a few places have already identified tourism as the major development tool in regional economies. However, the long term of effectiveness is not certain due to the lack of empirical and theoretical background to support this development tool. It has been observed that although tourism serves as the first driving force for regional development, the development pattem is a resource dependent one in which economic leakage is high and is easy to be trapped to be dependent on tourists and capital from the east part of China. The research attempts to use some of the development theories, the Dutch Disease theory, the dependence development theories and the resource economics theories to analyze the limits of growth in the tourism resource dependent destinations and develop a generic model. A system dynamics model captures the basic feedback structures leading to the growth and the limits to growth has been established. It has been found out the major growth from tourism development comes from the business potentials due to the arrival of tourists basically attracted by natural resources. When tourists arrive at the destination, investment begins to boom and more tourists are attracted with the improvement of the infrastructure. However three negative feedbacks are induced by the natural resource growth mechanism. The first is the ＂common tragedy＂ structure. The attraction of natural resource is the key for tourist arrival and therefore any investment at different quality level can share the time and thus the money that tourists have committed to the tourism destination. Yet, the overall experience of tourism can be reduced due to the poor management quality in the destinations. The second major feedback is the Dutch disease. In comparison with the other sectors, the initial growth from tourism development is really easy because it is a nature-based development; the expectation of the govemments and the other stakeholders rise and therefore the policies for development are in favor of tourism development. The production factors, such as land, capital for the other sectors are in a worsening condition and thus the development of the other sectors, mainly the secondary industry and the productive tertiary industry are lagged behind. The underdevelopment of the other sectors in return will reduce the economic multipliers of tourism development. The third feedback is due to lack of innovation because of the heavy reliance on tourism resources and therefore the destination can only attract mass tourism and the economic growth potential will reduce. Due to these three feedbacks, tourism resource based development normally encounters the growth limitation after six to seven years. The research finally points that the formulation of tourism development strategies should not be isolated from the development theories. Resource based tourism development can avoid the pattern of limited growth if they are well integrated with the other development tools. A balanced development, innovation and the intuitional arrangement should he especially paid attention to with the tourism resource based development tools.