近50a来黄河上游水循环要素变化分析

Study on Variations of Water Cycle Factors in Upper Yellow River Basin during Recent 50 Years

根据水文、气象台站观测资料,分析了黄河上游有器测资料几十年来降水、温度、径流等水循环素的变化过程与特征。结果显示,温度近几十年来流域各个地方有着不同程度的上升,与全球变暖有着明显的对应关系;而随着气温的上升,蒸发和下渗呈增加的趋势。降水变化的区域性特征十分明显,降水量的增减随地理位置不同而差异较大。受主要产流区域降水减少,气温上升的影响,黄河上游产水量呈持续递减的态势。在上述分析基础上,利用全球气候模式(GCMs)与统计模式对未来流域降水和径流的可能变化进行了预测。结果表明,未来30 a里,随着温度将进一步上升,降水量将比目前有明显增加,黄河上游的径流量将随降水量的增加而进入一个相对丰水的时期。

Based on the relational hydrometeorological data, we have analyzed the variation characteristics and processes of the hydroclimatic factors, such as temperature, precipitation and runoff, etc. in the upper Yellow River basin during the recent 50 years. The results showed that the regional temperature rose differentially in the basin, which obviously corresponded with global warming; along with temperature rising in the region, evaporation and infiltration increased. The variation of precipitation had obvious regional characteristics in the basin and the precipitation in main contributing area in the upper Yellow River basin presented a decreasing trend since 1990, which resulted in runoff decreasing continually for over 10 years. In addition to the above analysis, we have also forecasted the future possible variations on precipitation and runoff in the basin with the GCMs model and some other statistic models. In the future 30 years, the regional precipitation will remarkably increase in the basin along with temperature continually rising, which will result in a relatively plenty runoff period in the upper Yellow River basin compared with 1990s.