油气储量产量联合风险分析评价方法与应用

THE OIL AND GAS RESERVES-PRODUCITIVITY COMBINED RISK ANALYSIS METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION

文章在分析已有的用蒙特卡洛模拟方法进行石油勘探开发风险评价研究成果基础上,提出了勘探开发联合风险评价方法。首先根据地质资料运用蒙特卡洛模拟法模拟分析储量分布,根据统计资料和经验类比确定不同储量区间对应的产量分布规律;然后,联合储量分布规律和对应区间的产量分布规律,模拟区块未来可能的产量和经济效益分布规律。以流程图形式给出了联合风险分析模型,并用某天然气区块数据进行了应用试算分析。所提出的联合风险分析评价模型更具有统计原理基础,实际试算结果进一步表明,利用该模型进行油气储量产量经济评价、风险分析更为科学合理。

Based on the analysis on the existed research results about the application of Monte Carlo simulation method in the risk evaluation of oil exploration and development projects, this paper presents the method of combined risk evaluation. Firstly, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the distribution of reserves based on geological data. On the basis of statistical data and experience, the different distribution states and parameters of the oil production rate are defined for every different reserve amount intervals. Combining the reserves' distribution with oil production distribution corresponding to each reserve amount interval, the distributions of the future oil productions and the economic returns can be simulated. The paper describes the combined risk evaluation model by means of flow chart. Finally, a practical application study is made based on the data from an actual natural gas reserve area. According to this research, the combined risk evaluation model presented in this paper has much better statistic foundations. The practical application results show that it is more scientific and reasonable to use the combined risk evaluation model for the risk evaluation of oil exploration and development projects.