雨量预报方法的评价模型

Evaluation for Rainfall Forecast Methods

分析研究了2005年全国大学生数学建模的C题:雨量预报方法的评价。目前天气预报员可用来参考的客观预报方法越来越多,气象部门希望建立一种科学的评价预报方法好坏的数学模型与方法。结合该题,作者运用了统计学的观点和气象学知识,从两个不同角度建立了两个评价模型。两个模型均得出了有意义的结论,且结论相互补充;同时,两个模型均具有可推广性。针对该题的第二问,考虑到公众感受,作者对模型又进行了改进,使该模型更具合理性。

The C Subject of 2005 College Mathematical Modeling Race, the evaluation for the rainfall forecast methods is discussed. Currently, more and more practical ways of weather forecast can be utilized by forecasters for references, and weather bureaus hope to develop a scientific mathematical model and method to evaluate the reasonabitity of forecast ways. Based on the C Subject, statistics and aerography knowledge are used to build two evaluation models from two different perspectives. Significative conclusions have been driven from the two models, and the conclusions are complementary. The models can also be generalized. Considering the public＇s feelings, the models have been subtly improved and made more reasonable.