人群体重指数均值作为超重和肥胖患病率预测指标的研究

Prediction on the prevalence of obesity by mean value of body mass index of population

目的确定以人群体重指数(ISMI)均值作为预测超重、肥胖患病率指标的模型。方法分别计算2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查中132个调查点人群的BMI均值,用BMI均值和该地区超重、肥胖患病率建立数学模型。结果拟合非线性方程,建立以BMI均值为基础,预测超重、肥胖患病率的数学模型。经过回代证明,拟合方程有效。结论研究建立的模型对社区监测超重、肥胖患病率及预测超重、肥胖患病率的发展有着重要的应用价值,其效果有待实际应用加以进一步验证。

Objective This study was to focus on the development of a body mass index（BMI） based model to predict the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a community. Methods BMI（kg/m^2 ） means of the 132 sample sites in 2002 Nationwide Nutrition and Health Survey were calculated. Model was formulated by BMI means and the respective prevalence of obesity and overweight from the survey. Results Non-linear equation on BMI mean and the prevalence rates of obesity and overweight were formulated, and the efficacy of the non-linear equation was testified. Conclusion The Non-linear equation was applicable in monitoring the prevalence of obesity and overweight to predict the trend of the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a community. However, more verification should be carried out in the future when applying this model.