用于模拟建筑火灾的风险分析模型CU risk的开发和火灾案例分析(英文)

Development and case study of a risk assessment model CUrisk for building fires

加拿大卡尔顿大学开发了火灾风险计算机模型CUrisk,用以评估四层木结构商品建筑的火灾安全设计。该模型包括系统模型和许多子模型。系统模型用于设定风险分析框架及控制子模型数据流。它还负责计算每个火灾场景的生命危险值。其他子模型包括火灾增长、烟气运动、边界失效火灾蔓延、人员反应和疏散以及建筑造价和经济损失等模型。利用子模型的输出数据,系统模型可计算三个决策参数:对生命的预期风险、对受伤情况的预期风险以及消防成本预期。这些参数是以可能的火灾场景及相关概率为基础的。文章简要介绍了CUrisk模型,并介绍了运用该模型对四层商业建筑所进行的多火灾场景风险分析的结果。

A fire risk computer model CUrisk is being developed at Carleton University to evaluate fire safety designs for fourstory, timber-frame commercial buildings. The model consists of the system model and a number of subsidiary submodels. The system model implements the risk analysis framework and controls data flow of the submodels; it is also responsible for calculating the life hazard of each scenario. Other submodels include Fire Growth and Smoke Movement, Boundary Failure and Fire Spread, Occupant Response and Evacuation, and Building Cost and Economic Loss. Using the outputs of the submodels, the system model calculates three decision-making parameters ：the Expected Risk to Life, the Expected Risk of Injury, and the Fire Cost Expectation. These parameters are based on possible fire scenarios and their associated probabilities. This paper provides a brief description of CUrisk, and presents the results of a multi-scenario risk analysis for a four story commercial building.