中国中小工业企业景气监测预警系统开发与应用

The Development and Application of Monitoring and Early-Warning System of Small and Medium-Sized Industry Enterprises in China

改革开放以来,随着中国经济的快速发展,中小企业已逐步演变为国民经济中重要的企业形态,越来越多的中小企业进入到规模以上的工业经济中,成为拉动工业经济增长最主要的经济力量。研究中小工业企业的整体变化趋势是基于微观基础研究宏观经济变动的一个重要途径,对于了解经济整体运行情况无疑具有十分重要的现实意义。我们根据我国统计数据的特点,使用数据仓库技术,开发了适于景气分析的数据仓库,同时利用国际上通用的景气指数方法,根据中小工业企业实际经济统计数据,研制了反映中小工业企业经济运行状况的景气指数和预警信号系统,并建立了相应的中小工业企业景气监测预警软件系统。通过实证分析发现全行业的工业增加值增速先行于中小工业企业的波动。

With the fast development of Chinese economy, the small and medium-sized enterprises have gradually evolved into an important enterprise form in the national economy. More and more small and medium-sized enterprises belong to designated size industrial enterprises, so they become the main strength of industrial economy growth. It has very important practical meanings to research the tendency of small and medium-sized industry enterprises, so that we can research macro-economic fluctuation based on micro-economy. According to the characteristics of statistical data, we develop the database by data warehouse technology, which is suitable to business analysis. We also develop the composite index and early-warning system of small and medium-sized industry enterprises, and build the interrelated software system. Through the empirical analysis, we come to the conclusion that the fluctuation of IVA growth rate is faster than that of the coincident composite index of small and medium-sized industry enterprises.