全要素生产率在中国地区差异中的贡献:兼与彭国华和李静等商榷

The Role of Total Factor Productivity in China's Regional Disparities

本文在对资本产出弹性详细探讨的基础上,根据索洛余值核算分析了要素投入和全要素生产率对改革以来中国地区经济发展差异的影响。基于1978～2004年的省级数据,本文发现经济差异主要来源于要素积累而并非全要素生产率,前者的贡献份额大约是后者的3倍。不过本文结果也表明,1990年以后要素投入对地区差距的贡献正在快速下降,全要素生产率的作用持续提高,将成为今后地区差距的关键性决定因素。此外本文还指出,彭国华(2005)和李静等(2006)采用的核算方法和资本弹性设定都不符合中国经济增长现实,从而高估了全要素生产率的作用。

Based on the discussion on the methods to account the total factor productivity,this paper decomposes China's regional disparities to factors accumulation and the TFP by Solow's residual accounting.The main re- sult of this paper is that the capital can explain most part of the regional income disparities of China from 1978 to 2004,which means that Peng(2005)and Li(2006)maybe overestimated the role of TFP for using the im- proper method of TFP accounting and much smaller elasticity of capital.But this analysis also shows that the contribution of the TFP grows up quickly after 1990 as that of the factors goes down,which indicates TFP will determine China's economic growth and regional disparities in the future.