基于“配料”的梅雨锋强降水预报方法

An Ingredients-Based Methodology of Forecasting Heavy Rain of Meiyu Front

在梅雨锋暴雨预报中应用“配料法”,通过降水量的基本公式解释了强降水形成的基本配料,给出了建立配料的基本步骤,同时,通过一次暴雨个例分析,具体阐述了“配料法”在梅雨锋暴雨预报中的应用。结果表明,基于暴雨等强对流天气形成物理机理认识的基础上,所选取的可降水量等动力、热力因子与暴雨有着较好的对应关系,通过分析以上关键物理因子建立的过程,可以给出暴雨潜势预报。

Ingredients-Based Methodology （IBM） was applied to forecasting heavy rain of Meiyu front. The basic ingredients of heavy rain is explained by the prime equations of precipitation, and the approach to construct ingredients is also indicated. Furthermore, by analyzing a case, the application of the IBM to the prediction of heavy rain is illustrated. The result indicates that some basic ingredients, such as precipitable water （PW） etc. , selected by basic physical mechanism of severe convective weather, have good relationship with the heavy rain in Meiyu front, and the potential prediction of heavy rain can be made by the meteorological process of these basic ingredients.